Paper: Biological Death Final? Recomputing the Drake-S Equation for Postmortem Survival of Consciousness
Author(s): Adam J Rock et al.
Journal: International Journal of Transpersonal Studies
Link to full paper (PDF).

The original Drake equation was formulated in 1961 by Frank Drake as a way to calculate the potential number of advanced extraterrestrial civilisations in our galaxy. The validity of the equation has always been criticised, but the real purpose of the equation was to stimulate scientific dialogue on the topic. Which it accomplished in spades.

In this paper, the authors build on previous work to develop a ‘Drake equation’ that can be applied to the topic of post-mortem survival. And again, the underlying spirit of the endeavour is to generate discussion and study and to provide guidance in the formulation of future research and experiments.

The authors believe that research into post-mortem survival of consciousness must be amenable to high-quality empirical testing using accepted scientific protocols if it is to “compel the broader academic community”

The original Drake-S equation looks at the probabilities of a case of post mortem survival or near-death experience being confounded by previously identified alternate explanations such as:

• Measurement error
• Errors of memory, persuasion or contagion
• Environmental effects
• Fraud
• Mental illness (Hallucination)
• Susceptibility to Perceptual Aberrations.

To this list, the authors add living agent psi (LAP). An example of this might be a telepathic transfer of data collection about deceased individuals, or about what happened at the time of death (for example, an NDEer who reports the activities of medical staff during resuscitation), or other forms of ESP collected from living persons. Other examples of potential LAP might include medium readings and recollections of past life memories.

Using the Drake-S formula the authors propose that for any set of survival-related phenomena:

…six out of ten cases will be due to known confounds, one out of ten could represent living agent psi and three out of ten cases would thus represent purported evidence of discarnate agency”
…
Applied to a case-to-case basis, the formula would state that “For any given particular paranormal case, 60% of the phenomena can be attributed to conventional factors, 10% to living agent psi, and 30% to potential discarnate agency.”

The authors conclude this paper by stating:

“Our latest calculation of the Drake-S Equation does not prove the ontological existence of postmortem survival of consciousness, but it does serve as an intellectual exercise to help (a) bring empirical balance and rigor to assessing the statistical power of competing explanations for survival-related phenomena, and (b) identify those categories of anomalies with the most potential for refining or refuting current models of clinical, brain, and biological death, and how these constructs inform the hard problem of consciousness.”

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Image by Steve Buissinne